New ACT results show Common Core not meeting promises to many Kentucky’s students

New reports came out last week on the performance of 2017’s high school graduates across the country on the ACT college entrance test. A lot of folks are especially interested in the results for Kentucky because Common Core has been in place in the Bluegrass State longer than anywhere else. Thus, Kentucky has the longest trend line of relevant ACT scores in the country regarding how well Common Core has kept a major, frequently-heard promise (see for example here, here and here) that these standards would improve preparation for college. After all, if we are talking about college readiness, what more pertinent trend lines could there be? The ACT is designed to serve colleges first (not state educators) and the ACT explicitly reports about college readiness.

So, how do Kentucky’s ACT college readiness trends look?

To begin, keep in mind that Kentucky adopted Common Core – sight unseen – in February of 2010. Shortly thereafter, the state implemented Common Core-aligned testing in the 2011-12 school term. Thus, Common Core has been the classroom standard in Kentucky for more than half a decade. The state’s 2017 public high school graduates spent at least six years in classrooms impacted by the Common Core.

Figure 1, derived from data in the 2015 Kentucky Department of Education News Release 15-091 and the department’s 2017 News Release 17-114 shows the percentages of Kentucky’s public school graduates meeting the Kentucky Council on Postsecondary Education’s (CPE) ACT Benchmark Scores for College Readiness in English, math and reading from 2013 to 2017. Students meting those CPE ACT Benchmark Scores are admitted to credit bearing courses in Kentucky’s public postsecondary system in the related subjects without a requirement to take remedial courses. In other words, those students are deemed ready for college in that subject area, at least according to Kentucky’s educators.

Figure 1

Percent of 2013 to 2017 KY Grads Meeting CPE's ACT Benchmarks

A quick visual examination of Figure 1 shows Kentucky’s students initially made some progress in college readiness based on the ACT in the early years of Common Core. However, the small gains in both English and math actually started decay after 2015. For both English and math, the 2017 CPE Benchmark performances are lower than in 2015 and both are scarcely better than they were in 2013.

Reading appears to have trended somewhat better, but a careful inspection of the graph shows that even in this subject the rate of progress has slowed in more recent years. So, even in reading performance increases have come only very slowly. Worse, even the reading curve is starting to flatten.

For sure, the percentages of students meeting the CPE’s College Readiness Benchmarks in 2017 are disappointingly low in all three areas. When scarcely more than half of the state’s 2017 high school graduates read well enough to attempt college work without extra remedial training, the state obviously has a major problem that doesn’t seem to be improving much in the Common Core era.

When far fewer than one in two Kentucky high school graduates is ready for even the very lowest level credit bearing college math courses, the problem becomes much more severe.

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How does Kentucky rank against other states on the ACT?

This is a question we get asked frequently. Before we can intelligently answer, we first have to explain why it is misleading to rank Kentucky’s overall average scores for all students against other states. Frequent blog readers already know the answer, but it bears repeating for new readers.

Table 1 shows a comparison of Kentucky’s and Louisiana’s 2017 ACT composite scores by race with some related demographic data for the numbers of graduates in each racial group and the percentage of all graduates represented by each racial group.

Note that 100 percent of their graduates in both states took the ACT in 2017, so this is a reasonable comparison.

Table 1

Kentucky Vs. Louisiana for ACT Composite by Race 2017

The top line of data in Table 1 for “All Students” shows the overall average ACT Composite Score for both states for all 2017 high school graduates. Since this covers all students, the related percentage figure for both states is 100 percent, of course.

Notice that the Average ACT Composite Score for all students for Kentucky was 20.0 and for Louisiana it was only 19.5.

So, Kentucky’s education system performs better, right?


Notice that the relative performance picture changes rather dramatically when we look at the scores broken out by race. Except for blacks and Asian students, Kentucky trails ACT Composite Score performance in Louisiana, often by a rather large amount considering the ACT is a 36-point test.

In particular, note that Louisiana’s whites outscored Kentucky’s whites by 0.6 point, which is a notable difference on this test.

While you look at the data for white students, notice that even as of 2017 Kentucky’s school population remains heavily white, with 71 percent of all the Bluegrass State’s students coming from this one racial group. In Louisiana, by sharp comparison, whites don’t even make up the majority of graduates, totaling only 48 percent in 2017.

Also note that with the exception of the relatively small number of Asian graduates in both states, whites in both states score much higher than the other minority groups. Therein lies the key to this paradox of how Kentucky can look better when we only consider overall average scores but then that picture falls apart when we break the data out by race. Due to the demographic differences, when we look only at overall scores, we are comparing many whites in Kentucky to lower-scoring racial minority graduates in Louisiana. That artificially biases the results in Kentucky’s favor.

By the way, Kentucky’s racial mix is also very different from the overall national group of ACT-tested graduates in 2017, as Figure 1 shows.

Figure 1

Kentucky and National ACT Racial Demographics in 2017

If we only compare Kentucky’s overall average scores to those across the nation, we are matching a notable number of Kentucky white scores, 19 percent of them, to racial minority scores elsewhere. Since achievement gaps like those we see in Table 1 are a problem everywhere, that winds up giving Kentucky an unfair advantage in those comparisons.

So, to get a better idea about how Kentucky’s education system really compares to other states, we need to break the scores out by race. Because Kentucky is predominantly white, and all states have enough whites to report scores for this racial group, we focus on white scores.

When we talk about state comparisons using the ACT, there is another consideration, as well. Unlike in Kentucky, most states still don’t require all students to take the ACT. For example, in Maine in 2017 the ACT reports that only 8 percent of the graduates took the ACT. This isn’t a valid random sample of Maine students, either. We have no way to know if the Maine results represent mostly the very strongest or the weakest students. There is no way to tell.

Thus, we cannot intelligently compare a state like Kentucky, where 100 percent of the graduates were tested in 2017, to a state like Maine. In fact, the ACT, Inc. itself told us several years ago that they recommend not doing so, and ACT spokesperson Ed Colby provided similar cautions in a Courier-Journal article about ACT scores in 2015.

So, how does Kentucky compare? Click the “Read more” link to find out.

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How did Kentucky’s non-public school students do on the ACT in 2017?

The Bluegrass Institute is frequently asked about the performance of various non-public school students such as those going to private and parochial schools and those schooled at home. Unfortunately, that information is not directly available.

However, many years ago I realized that I could compute scores for the state’s non-public school graduates using scores and participation numbers for all students that the ACT, Inc. directly provides and the separate scores and participation numbers for public school students that currently come from the Kentucky Department of Education (and formerly were available from the Kentucky Office of Education Accountability).

So, I show the Kentucky non-public school graduates ACT data by year in Table 1.

Table 1

KY ACT Scores for Other Than Public School Students

Compare this to the public school only scores shown in Table 2.

Table 2

KY ACT Scores for Public School Students Only

As you look at these tables, please note there have been several changes in the ACT over the years that make it inaccurate to compare the scores across long periods of time.

One major change came in 2009. This was the first year that 100 percent of Kentucky’s public high school graduates took the ACT. Table 2 shows there was a major shift downward in the public school scores as many more weak students who never had planned to take the ACT suddenly were included in the public school mix. There is a white background break line on the tables to make this change in testing conditions for graduates in 2009 and later more evident.

A second change came in 2013 when the ACT for the first time averaged in scores from students who got more than the standard amount of time to test. Before 2013, such scores were not included in the overall state averages. There was some impact on the public school scores. However, non-public school scores in Table 1 don’t show any impacts, indicating not many non-public school students are using this option.

When you compare Table 1 to Table 2, you can see that the tested group in Kentucky’s non-public schools produce much higher ACT average scores in every subject area. For example, in ACT English the non-public school graduates in 2017 scored 4.7 points higher than the public school students did. This is a very large score difference on the ACT, which is only a 36-point maximum test. Score differences for the other ACT test subjects, while somewhat smaller, are still very large.

As you examine the tables, this strong difference in performance in favor of non-public schools has been present for a very long time in Kentucky, with one exceptional period starting around 1998. In that year there appears to have been a massive flight of students from the public schools in the state to the non-public system. That flight was accompanied by a dramatic drop in the non-public school graduates’ scores.

I have never seen any research on this interesting phenomenon, but 1998 was the year that the legislature threw out Kentucky’s first reform accountability system, the old KIRIS assessments. That action came about due to growing distrust regarding the obviously inflating KIRIS results. I suspect this dramatic event and the concern about public education performance behind it are related to the dramatic increase in Kentucky’s non-public school graduations in 1998.

By 1998, many parents were upset about the low performance of the public schools. For example, Table 2 shows the ACT Composite Score for public schools in Kentucky remained essentially flat, running either 19.9 or 20.0 from 1993 all the way to 2002. This flat performance could have been the trigger that motivated many parents to move their children. If so, the non-public school ACT score trends indicate those parents might have made the move to alternative schooling too late to help their children.

In any event, the rapid increase in non-public graduates in 1998 was associated with a notable decay in the non-public ACT averages as the non-public school graduate count soared by an astonishing 47 percent in just one year between 1997 and 1998.

Over time, the situation balanced out. For at least the past decade, the results for those non-public school graduates who take the ACT has been considerably better than the public school performance.

What we don’t know is what percentage of the non-public school graduates takes the ACT, though I suspect the non-public school participation rate is very high. Given the current, very large differences between non-public school and public school graduates’ ACT scores, even if some of the weakest non-public school students don’t take the ACT, it seems that Kentucky’s non-public schools do produce better results than the public school system.

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ACT scores are out – Other voices on the gaps

The Washington Post wasted no time posting its reactions to the new ACT scores that came out today. The title of the article says it all:

“‘We didn’t know it was this bad’: New ACT scores show huge achievement gaps”

ACT scores are out – Kentucky’s public school gaps also are problem

As I wrote earlier today, new ACT reports for the high school graduating class of 2017 are now publicly released. There should be a lot of interest because this is the seventh year after Kentucky adopted the Common Core State Standards, which were supposed to dramatically improve college preparation.

Certainly, progress towards college readiness seems to have gone flat in Kentucky. Even the Kentucky Department of Education’s (KDE) News Release about the new ACT scores says:

“(Kentucky Commissioner of Education Steven) Pruitt said this year’s flat ACT scores reinforce that the timing is right for Kentucky to take a serious look at its graduation requirements and move forward with a new accountability system that is designed to promote and hold schools and districts accountable for student achievement and significantly reduce achievement gaps (Underline for emphasis added).”

My earlier post looked at the white minus black achievement gaps for all Kentucky 2017 high school graduates combined: public, private and home school. Because there are not a lot of non-public school graduates in Kentucky, those overall scores pretty closely, but not perfectly, mirror what is happening in the public schools.

Unfortunately, public school only ACT results don’t come directly from the ACT, Inc. Public school only data is only found in the KDE’s News Release and that release does not include nearly as much information as can be found in the ACT, Inc.’s materials.

Still, we can look at the public school only white minus black achievement gap for the ACT Composite Score, which is presented in Figure 1.

Figure 1

ACT Composite Gaps in Kentucky to 2017 Public School Only

For comparison, the graph of the ACT Composite Scores for all students is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2

ACT Composite Gaps in Kentucky to 2017

As you can see, since ACT changed its reporting system in 2013 (more on that is in the first blog), the gaps are somewhat smaller when we only look at the public school results, but this is mostly because the whites in public schools score notably lower than the whites in Kentucky’s non-public schools.

For example, in 2017 Figure 1 shows that whites in the state’s public schools scored only 20.3 on the ACT Composite but Figure 2 shows the overall white average was higher at 20.7.

Thus, the score for the non-public whites had to be higher, probably several points higher, than 20.7.

Unfortunately, counts of white and black graduates are not listed in KDE’s News Release 17-114 (ACT’s report does list that information for the overall student group); so, I can’t accurately calculate the actual non-public white scores for you.

Also note that the scores for the black public school graduates are slightly lower than the state’s overall ACT Composite Scores for blacks. Thus, for example, the score for black non-public school graduates in 2017 has to be higher than the overall average score of 17.0 for blacks shown in Figure 2.

Do notice that whether we look at Figure 1 or Figure 2, the trend in the white minus black ACT Composite Score achievement gap is pretty much the same. In both cases, the gap in 2017 is no better than in 2014.

So, while I can’t show you any breakouts of public school only gaps for the specific ACT academic areas of English, math, reading and science, I am pretty confident that the all student results shown in my earlier blog give a pretty good idea about what is happening in Kentucky’s public schools.

Also, note that the public school white ACT Composite scores have flat lined for three years now. That is a real problem, too.

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ACT scores are out – Kentucky’s white minus black achievement gaps continue to be a problem

The new ACT reports for the high school graduating class of 2017 have been publicly released, and there will be a lot to talk about concerning these important college readiness test results in the seventh year after Kentucky adopted the Common Core State Standards, which were supposed to dramatically improve college preparation.

Certainly, progress towards college readiness seems to have gone flat in Kentucky. Even the Kentucky Department of Education’s News Release about the new ACT scores says:

“(Kentucky Commissioner of Education Steven) Pruitt said this year’s flat ACT scores reinforce that the timing is right for Kentucky to take a serious look at its graduation requirements and move forward with a new accountability system that is designed to promote and hold schools and districts accountable for student achievement and significantly reduce achievement gaps (Underline for emphasis added).”

The department’s News Release emphasizes that racial achievement gaps are currently a hot concern in Kentucky. So, let’s look at the trends in the white minus black ACT achievement gaps from 2013 to the present. I only look back to 2013 because ACT changed its reporting format in that year, including for the first time scores for students who got more than the standard time to complete this college entrance test. As a result, the current data isn’t strictly comparable to years prior to 2013. Still, this covers the major portion of time that Common Core was really impacting Kentucky’s classrooms, as the state began Common Core-aligned testing in reading, writing and mathematics just one year prior in the 2011-12 school term.

Figure 1 shows how the overall ACT Composite Score trends look for all of Kentucky’s whites and blacks for high school graduates from public, private and home schools in the years of 2013 through 2017.

Figure 1

ACT Composite Gaps in Kentucky to 2017

As you can see, scores for both white and black students slowly increased over the past five years, but the achievement gap in 2017 has been basically flat, no better than it was back in 2014 (I highlighted the 2014 gap for emphasis).

Essentially, the ACT Composite Score achievement gap for whites versus blacks in the Bluegrass State hasn’t changed appreciably in half a decade of Common Core impacts in Kentucky.

Also note that the white scores look like they indeed are going flat. If that had not happened, the black gap trend would look even worse. We don’t want gaps closing only because white scores are staying stagnant.

I have similar graphs for the individual subjects tested by ACT, as well (English, Math, Reading and Science). Click the “Read more” link to see those.

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Jumping on a report before reading it (Revised)

Chatter on social media started up several days ago from several Kentucky educators about a news report that Kentucky’s education system had been ranked by a group called WalletHub as the 5th best in the nation.

Based on the tweets starting on July 28th linking to the LEX18 article, I initially thought the WalletHub report was for 2017, but I could not find it online on July 28th.

Things got more confused when WalletHub actually issued its 2017 report just a few days later on July 31. The 2017 report indicated Kentucky only ranked 27th. So, I called LEX18 to find out what was going on. The person I contacted there was not able to explain the difference between the figures for Kentucky in the LEX18 report and the 2017 WalletHub report.

Yesterday I determined that’s article was from July 28, 2015 and apparently covered another WalletHub report from two years ago.

In any event, WalletHub’s 2017 report does not rank Kentucky in 5th place. We are listed in the 27th slot for our total score. That is quite a drop from 5th place just two years ago although it must be considered that WalletHub uses more metrics in its 2017 report.

By the way, despite the previous mystery, one solid outcome from all of this is there clearly are no problems with the security of WalletHub’s e-mails. So, that issue can be put to bed.

Is this good??? ‘Hanover College is latest to not require SAT, ACT’

The Courier-Journal echoes a report from its sister paper, the Indianapolis Star, that another college in this country will no longer require applicants to take either the ACT or SAT college entrance tests. According to the article:

“Hanover College in Southern Indiana will join nearly 1,000 public and private accredited institutions across the nation that have opted for a ‘test optional’ or ‘test flexible’ admissions policy.”

While this will probably reduce student anxiety in a teen population that increasingly seems stressed (think suicides, for example), are there possible shortcomings in colleges dropping such testing from their admissions policies?

We at BIPPS think there are some problems, and we have information to back up our concerns.

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So, Common Core was supposed to increase student desire for tech?

As Kentucky begins the debate about how to change its current Common Core State Standards-based Kentucky Education Standards into something better, I came across a very interesting report from the ACT, Inc. concerning Kentucky student interest in careers in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics – the so-called “STEM Careers.”

ACT’s “The Condition of STEM Careers 2016, Kentucky” report contains a lot of interesting information about interest in STEM careers among the state’s recent high school graduates. This data is collected during ACT testing, and since Kentucky tests 100 percent of its graduates with the ACT, the data is particularly important.

To be sure, this first table extract from the report, shown in Figure 1, shows some bothersome things.

Figure 1
(From: “The Condition of STEM Careers 2016, Kentucky”)

ACT STEM Report 2016 Kentucky - Percent of Students Interested in STEM

While interest in STEM careers has slipped in Kentucky since 2012, the first year Common Core testing was conducted in the state, nationally STEM interest hasn’t changed much and is still the same as it was back in 2012.

There is more bad news, which you can access by clicking the “Read more” link.

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Common Core: Costs versus education performance in Kentucky

Thanks to a presentation on Common Core State Standards I did on Thursday, I’ve been looking at some financial information that relates to the cost changes for public education in the Common Core era in Kentucky.

I have further expanded this analysis, now comparing education revenue during the last five years before Kentucky adopted Common Core to the revenue figures during the first five year of the state’s implementation of Common Core. I also added some interesting test result information covering the same period.

The results don’t look encouraging.

As you look at the information below, keep in mind that Kentucky adopted the Common Core State Standards – sight unseen – in February 2010.

Table 1 below compares how public school per pupil revenue changed in Kentucky during the 5-year period prior to Common Core and the initial 5-year period when the state transitioned to the new standards.

Table 1

Per Pupil Costs Before and During CCSS Era in KY

The blue shaded area shows total per pupil spending figures covering the last five school years before Kentucky adopted the Common Core (2004-2005 to 2009-2010) and the first five school years of Common Core transition (2009-2010 to 2014-2015).

The first column of spending data in the blue shaded part of Table 1 shows total per pupil revenue in Kentucky for the listed school years without any adjustment for inflation. The last column shows spending converted to inflation adjusted, constant 2005 dollars.

Below the rows listing the revenue figures I show the changes in revenue for each 5-year period, shaded in yellow.

As you can see, spending in the five years preceding Kentucky’s adoption of Common Core increased notably more slowly than in the early Common Core transition years. From 2005 to 2010, spending in unadjusted dollars only increased by $1,951, an increase of 23.9 percent. Meanwhile, during the first five years of the state’s Common Core era, spending rose by $2,815, or 27.9%.

The real spending increase is much more dramatic. From 2005 to 2010 the spending increase in real dollars was only $739, just a 9.1 percent rise. In the Common Core transition period from 2010 to 2015, the rise was $1,650, an increase of 18.6 percent, more than double the rise in the pre-Common Core period.

So, spending rates on public education in Kentucky notably accelerated in the Common Core era.

But, how did educational performance trend? For the answer to that, click the “Read more” link.

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