There is a not-so-funny joke economists tell about being stuck on a deserted island with a bunch of canned foods and deciding that starvation would be averted by “assuming a can opener.”
“Additional steps need to be taken. The state must stick to the funding schedule contained in HB 1. Health care costs need to be further contained. Maximum investment returns are required from the $30 billion in assets that are in trust to pay future benefits. But do not underestimate the value of the design changes made by last month’s reform. I’ve seen the numbers.”
That is the actuarial equivalent of pulling a rabbit out of hat or making a can opener magically appear on a deserted island. It’s either a common deception or an very, very unlikely event.
The numbers on HB 1 are fine. But the assumptions are from outer space.